(Ed. Note: Courtney Cooper is a Wallingford-based realtor and a Wallyhood sponsor. We asked if she’d share her perspective on how the real estate in Wallingford is shaping up. She’s agreed to contribute a regular update. This is the first. Welcome, Courtney!)
Wallingford Real Estate Update: Whew! 2010 is about to be in the history books and this year has been one for the real estate books. How has the market affected Wallingford home sales?
In order to find out, let’s look at November Wallingford Single Family Residential Real Estate Stats in 2010 vs the same time period in 2009.
Let’s Look at Seattle Overall in the same time period:
Obviously the numbers for all of Seattle will be larger, but isn’t it interesting to compare some of the key points? Wallingford’s average days on market for November 2010 is only 25 days while Seattle’s overall number is 56. While Wallingford’s median sales price was all the way in the $500,000 range last year, it was down to $405,000 for November 2010. This is only slightly higher than Seattle’s overall median sales price of $391,000. Lastly, the difference in dollar per square foot of Wallingford over all of Seattle has dropped slightly when compared to last year.
Wallingford overall has been somewhat insulated by what has happened overall in real estate.
This is because well established neighborhoods like Wallingford have a substantial infrastructure which provides a powerful buffer that other neighborhoods or suburbs may not have. This has developed over a long period of time to create the culture that is Wallingford today.
Has Wallingford been plagued by short sales like other areas of Seattle have been?
Surprisingly, no. There have been only 9 sales this year in Wallingford that were short sales. Eight of these were condos and one was a townhouse. There have been absolutely no single family short sale closings in 2010 except for that townhome! There are also 3 active Wallingford short sale condos on the market currently and 6 short sales that are pending. Of these 6, there are 2 single family residential traditional homes, 2 townhomes, and 2 condos.
If you are looking for a short sale bargain in Wallingford, then plan on looking at Wallingford condos because single family residential is not offering much in the way of short sale inventory.
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Inventory has dropped:
Inventory has dropped significantly in Wallingford in the last month or so. You can see this in this Trendgraphix graph. You can also see that the inventory drop is not directly related to all of the available homes being sold. Many homeowners are taking their homes off the market either to give themselves a break over the holidays or just to “wait it out” until spring. This leaves the few buyers that are out there looking elsewhere to try to find a suitable property.
Why Not Try Winter To List Your Wallingford Home?
Winter might actually benefit the home seller because they are not facing the same competition as in busier Spring and Summer months. In addition, the buyers who are braving the weather and trudging the streets through rain and hail our usually serious buyers versus a lot of the “looky loos” we see in the summertime. Combine that with the interest rates which although have creeped up slightly are still in an all time low range (4.78% at last check for 30 year fix on 12/14/2010). We have also recently noticed considerable interest in Wallingford and other strong Seattle neighborhoods by potential buyers looking at the possibility of relocating to Seattle. Obviously Spring and Summer will still bring out more buyers, but definitely consider other options. It just depends on your particular situation.
Written by Courtney Cooper, Designated Broker for Wallingford based Cooper Jacobs Real Estate LLC. Data compiled using NWMLS and Trendgraphix data. If you need help with Wallingford real estate or other Seattle neighborhood real estate, please feel free to get in touch with us – we have wonderful Seattle Realtors and love being a part of Wallingford! [email protected] 206-236-9696
How has Wallingford been “somewhat insulated by what has happened overall in real estate”? These numbers seem to state that Wallingford’s 2009/2010 year over year home value has plummeted over 20%, while Seattle overall has remained fairly stable. Am I missing something?
Hi Doug – Thanks for commenting – I should definitely clarify that I mean to say it is somewhat insulated when compared to other areas, but especially the suburbs.
I should probably include the average square footage next time as well so I can show more clearly that the drop in price is more a product of lower priced homes being the big movers overall rather than a straight percentage of home value loss.
I would also be interested in seeing what other kinds of numbers you might be interested in. Thanks again for pointing that out:)
Welcome to Wallyhood, Courtney!
Thanks Chris:) I have haunted Wallyhood for a while now on the sidebar and as a reader, but it is nice to be able to contribute a tiny bit. Looking forward to more!
@DOUG: with only four homes sold, I don’t think you can conclude much of anything of the decrease in average selling price. Not statistically significant.
You’ll have to forgive me – this isn’t an attack on Courtney but an attack on real estate agents in general. I don’t trust ’em.
They’ve been saying it’s a great time to buy or a great time to sell every year, without avail, since before and up to the so called mortgage bust. And of course they would – they make money in both scenario’s. Can’t blame ’em – but I don’t know why you’d actually consult with them.
Case in point – Courtney is a regular contributor to estatesnorthwest.com, and like other agents on there, she’s said things like this in 2007 “Economic growth is at every turn… get the best deal you can, then sit and wait for the rest of the buyers to come out and drive those prices back up again!”
What happened after 2007? Mortgage rates dropped from ~6% to ~4% and we had the major economic crisis of 2008. Brought on by who? Banks, assessors, mortgage brokers, and (dare I say lying?) real estate agents.
So why then, would you trust a real estate agent, to make a forward thinking statement and help you determine your future? Like my momma always said – never accept free advice, you’ll pay more for it later.
@Andy – you are right – it will be interesting to keep an eye on it as more numbers get plugged in.
@Batman You say it isn’t an attack on me, but then turn around and directly attack me so I feel like I need to respond.
First of all, with 58 posts in 2007 alone and all the fluff about neighborhood events and homeownership tips on EstatesNorthwest (I was learning how to blog), I am surprised you were able to even find such a quote, but good find:). I happen to remember writing this in response to hearing people complain that they could not find buyer bonuses advertised on homes. The title refelected my reaction.. something about “here’s your buyer bonus” with sarcasm I have to admit :), so its a little out of context.
That being said, blogging by nature is historical – I also wrote a post on that site in ’07 about being creative with seller financing which is impossible to do today. However, I do stand by the post you refer to. I am constantly looking at Seattle’s economy and real estate market compared to other parts of the country and though we are certainly not in a golden era by any means, we are lucky compared to many others. I don’t think anyone can argue with that. Prior to ’07 and ’08, many buyers were just flat out priced out of the market. Real estate should be a long term investment and buying in these years should not necessarily be a bad thing if the situation is right for the particular buyer.
I won’t argue that the market has gone down, but I personally have always told buyers as I said above in the selling your home in winter paragraph that it really depends on their situation. I have advised many people not to buy and many people not to sell based on their own particular situations. I also won’t vouch for my industry as a whole, but you can’t pin the whole crisis on banks, assessors, mortgage brokers, and real estate brokers. At some point, personal responsibility and free will of consumers should also be taken into account.
Let me know if there are particular numbers you want to see in the future. I want to get accurate info out there and if you have tips on what might be interesting, then please do let me know.
What is the logic of fewer sales/fewer days on the market when the total for sale is similar in 2010 and 2009?
@Andy: That’s true of sold homes, but I’m assuming that the “Median Price of Wallingford” category includes all listed homes, sold or not. This number also went down over 20% year-over-year.
@Courtney above: “At some point, personal responsibility and free will of consumers should also be taken into account.”
You are absolutely right there, but the concept of any form of personal responsibility seems to be a real tough sell around here where it’s WAY un-pc to hold people accountable for bad behavior.
I always thought the ‘right time’ to buy a house was when you want/need one and can afford it regardless of the broader market. Wallingford’s attractiveless as a place to live will only grow as South Lake Union is developed. There won’t be a ‘bad time’ to buy in this neighborhood for a long time.
interesting comments from everyone. it sounds like some got burned perhaps (?) in their real estate decision making.
the bottom line is no one has a crystal ball and to point any blaming fingers is a waste of time at this point. can it be fixed? yes. with time. when we see home vacancies stop climbing is when we’ll see our home values stop declining. this is a general statement and is meant to include the housing market across the country. yes, it’s supply and demand. builders and construction companies overbuilt. so now we have a rising number of vacancies and unfinished projects, and coupled with the foreclosure market, it will just take time to get the real estate roller coaster back on track again. when rental rates are higher than the cost of buying a home, an investment, that is a red flag. and that’s precisely what occurred during 2005-2007. home owners were suddenly business owners, it seemed, and not everyone should be a business owner. 🙂
i agree with IYQTOO: the right time to buy or sell is a personal choice and everyone has their own reasons. like any major decision, talk to people – ask questions – find out answers. a real estate agent can help. real estate agents are dialed in to many networks and their connections are well worth your while.
there are tons of articles and real estate guru’s out there. i choose to listen to only the optimistic ones. i enjoyed courtney’s post. and she’s right, seattle has alot going for it and thousands of people move here every year for a reason.
David Leonhardt published a really interesting post on the Economix blog on the NYT today which gets at the idea of “is this the right time to buy?” He compares the cost of renting to the cost of buying in a variety of markets around the country. Seattle is close to the top of the list in its buy/rent ratio. That is to say, he argues that it is much more sensible to rent than to buy in Seattle right now.
Although the sample size is small, I would be really interested in figuring out the ratio for Wallingford specifically. Granted, we have a lot of single family standalone houses and most of the rented apartments are in larger buildings. Still, a square foot to square foot comparison might tell us something.
Here’s the link to Leonhardt’s piece: http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/22/buy-vs-rent-an-update/?pagemode=print
brian: thank you for forwarding leonhardt’s piece. interesting indeed. the cities he advises to buy (vs rent) appear to be in much turmoil though. example: vegas and detroit because of their large number of home vacancies for starters. i understand that prices are extremely reasonable in these said areas right now. but i have to wonder why someone would buy a home just because it’s cheap. getting back to our seattle market, perhaps it can maintain a rate of 27 because of our affluent and vast array of communities. i believe that’s why our market here has sustained better than say, vegas. it would be interesting to see how/if that 27 number for seattle changed over the last few years.
finding the ratio between rent vs own in wallingford specifically would be nice to know. title companies have this information but only for sfr (single family residents). apartment buildings are classified as one parcel number. i’m sure there is a marketing company that could decipher the number of units per apartment building though.
Back during the 2000 Census, I believe Wallingford had 65% renters. I wonder what that ratio is now, with the 2010 Census data released?
Molly – I’m glad you found the Leonhardt piece interesting. I think I agree with a lot of what you’re saying, but I’m not sure I entirely follow you. You write that you are not sure why someone would buy a home “just because it’s cheap.” I would argue that people have to either purchase or rent housing if they want to avoid homelessness. People operating in a free market with perfect information generally choose the least expensive option. (Whether the information is perfect is another matter entirely, as is the government subsidy toward home buyers in the form of the mortgage interest deduction).
I do agree that the higher buy/rent ratio in Seattle may reflect the optimistic economic conditions here. When people buy a house, I think they are expressing a sense of rootedness and confidence that isn’t easily captured in dollar amounts. Still, I think Leonhardt would argue that Seattlites are oftentimes buying when they should be renting. If one agrees with his line of reasoning, the relative affluence of our city shouldn’t really affect the buy/rent ratio, because a millionaire can rent a beautiful large house as easily as she could buy one.
There’s also fantastic buy vs. rent tool on the New York Times website at this address: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/business/buy-rent-calculator.html
If you have time, you can plug some numbers in there and make a decision for yourself on whether it is better to rent or to buy. Of course, there’s no way to predict what future inflation rates will be, or how rental prices or home prices may change in the next year or two let alone 10 years. Using reasonable estimates though, the calculator shows me that buying a condo equivalent to my current apartment will *never* be a money-saving proposition, even 50 years into the future.
hi brian: i suppose i’m coming from being a home owner myself and the rootedness and confidence you speak of rings true. don’t get me wrong, it took time getting over the fact that i would be responsible and the steward of this piece of land i “own”. and it sounds like you’re coming from a renting point of view and we’re both pretty satisified with our truths. this is sorta what i’ve been trying to write about all along. people are confused about the real estate market and just want to know where it’s going, what to do, what risks/not risks to take. seems like this topical could be discussed til we’re all blue in the face: whether to rent vs buy, move vs stay, save vs purchase. but when it comes down to it, i think we should all live within our means, be realistic, and be helpful to those around us. regarding buying something just because it’s cheap: i didn’t mean to come across as insincere or ruthless. i merely meant why buy something just because it’s there. but of course this doesn’t apply to everyone. of course if it means having shelter, then by all means take advantage!